The High Risk, Low Frequency Incident

What's Waiting for You Around the Corner?

Even the best of companies are not immune from the potential for a catastrophic event stemming from a high risk, low frequency (HRLF) hazard.  Not that such an occurrence is inevitable, but all too frequently we see in the news how another organization is dealing with the tragic loss of life due to such an incident.

The fact is, many organizations are very good at avoiding the obvious hazards and exposures that are part of their day to day operations.  However, in dealing with the obvious, we can lose sight of the unanticipated catastrophic event waiting around the corner.  Two factors that are often prevalent in these incidents:

Low Frequency (limited experience with the exposure and how it evolves into an incident)

No Decision Time (rapidly developing situations that afford little or no time to make informed decisions)

Additionally, these events can be highly complicated with multiple causes, many moving parts with human factors playing a major role (which is what makes safety professionals go prematurely bald) making if very difficult to predict these events with any reliability.  That doesn’t mean we wait patiently for the next one to happen.  It means we never get complacent or concede that there are just some things you can’t change.

A prevailing sense of vulnerability is an essential element in preventing these kinds of incidents.  We may be doing a lot right and have the record to prove it; but … we are not immune as long as residual risk, limited experience and fast moving situations are present – and they will always be present.